Canada’s Food Sovereignty: The Next Frontier of National Security

By John Ruffolo, Founder & Managing Partner, Maverix Private Equity & Daniel Frank, Associate, Maverix Private Equity

For over a century, Canada has been known as one of the world’s great breadbaskets. Our vast prairie wheat fields, abundant fresh water, and world-leading potash reserves have made us a cornerstone of global food supply. We possess everything required to not only feed ourselves, but also much of the world.

In the era of globalization, Canada has prioritized seeking the lowest cost of processed goods with a great variety of choice at perhaps the expense of self-sufficiency. Today, that model leaves us exposed. Our ability to feed Canadians depends increasingly on imported food and foreign processing capacity.

What began as a strength of global integration has become a vulnerability of dependence. This dependence isn’t just an economic issue. It’s a growing threat to our sovereignty.

The Wake-Up Call

The COVID-19 pandemic offered a sobering preview of what happens when global supply chains falter. Empty shelves, shipping delays, and price spikes revealed our dependence on imported food and agricultural inputs in a system not designed for resilience. In today’s world of shifting alliances and unpredictable trade dynamics, that dependence has only become more precarious. Global markets can change overnight, and pinning our ability to feed ourselves to such volatility leaves Canadians exposed to risks we can neither predict nor control.

Other countries have long understood that food security is a strategic imperative. China, for example, continues to produce rice domestically—even when it can import the crop 30 to 40 percent cheaper—because it views food independence as an investment in stability and self-reliance. Japan takes the same approach. They understand what we seem to have forgotten: food sovereignty is national security.

Canada must now adopt that mindset.

The Export Trap

Canada’s food system has, in many ways, become a victim of its own efficiency. After decades of prioritizing exports, we’ve built an agriculture sector that’s world-class at producing and shipping raw commodities like beef and pork—yet increasingly dependent on imports for the food Canadians actually eat. Despite having the resources and expertise to process far more at home, we continue to send raw goods abroad and buy back higher-value finished products.

In 2024, for instance nearly a quarter of all Canadian hogs were exported to the United States—either for finishing on American farms or direct processing. That same year, almost 800,000 cattle crossed the border, with more than 78% destined for immediate slaughter. These numbers underscore how much of Canada’s production depends on U.S. processing capacity rather than domestic infrastructure.

Although this export-oriented, trade-dependent model has supported trade figures in the past, it leaves our food system vulnerable to global market volatility and foreign supply chains. It also represents a missed economic opportunity. Expanding domestic processing could capture billions more in value annually while strengthening both food security and national resilience.

Even in agricultural inputs, the disconnect is clear. Canada is the world’s largest potash producer, responsible for roughly one-third of global output—yet we still import millions of tonnes of fertilizer each year. We export abundance and import dependence, reinforcing a system that limits our ability to build a more self-sufficient and secure food economy.

From Breadbasket to Dependency

Over decades, our food system has drifted toward efficiency and price optimization rather than resilience and redundancy. We’ve built a food culture that expects strawberries in February and avocados in March, regardless of the environmental or economic trade-offs.

This has left us exposed. Today, about 30 percent of all food and beverages consumed in Canada are imported - including 90 percent of our leafy greens and 75 percent of fresh fruit. During the winter months, those numbers climb even higher . A drought in California, a geopolitical spat with Mexico, or a tariff shift in Washington can directly affect what ends up on our dinner tables.

When another country controls the conditions under which you can feed your people, your sovereignty is at risk.

Food as a Strategic Asset

It’s time to treat food as we do energy or defense—as a core pillar of national security. This means identifying which components of our food system are essential and ensuring they remain under domestic control.

Trade agreements must reflect this. Too often, agricultural sectors like dairy, eggs, and poultry are treated as bargaining chips in trade negotiations. But these aren’t outdated relics—they’re the infrastructure of our food sovereignty. Similarly, we shouldn’t view canola exports to China solely through the lens of market access; we must consider how they strengthen (or weaken) our domestic capacity to feed ourselves.

The goal is not protectionism but prudence: ensuring that Canada can withstand shocks and sustain its population, regardless of what happens abroad.

Technology as the Game Changer

Skeptics argue that our climate limits year-round food production. But technology is rapidly changing that equation.

Artificial intelligence, robotics, and bioengineered seeds can help farmers optimize yields, reduce waste, and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Indoor and vertical farming—using artificial lighting, controlled humidity, and precision irrigation—can allow us to grow fresh produce 12 months a year. Sovereign agricultural data, collected through sensors and satellites and stored domestically, can inform real-time decisions while protecting against foreign control of our food intelligence.

These aren’t futuristic ideas—they’re already happening globally. The Netherlands, with a landmass smaller than Nova Scotia, is now the world’s second-largest exporter of agricultural products by value thanks to innovation in greenhouse and ag-tech systems. Canada has the potential to go even further.

Imagine AI-managed greenhouses powered by clean, domestic energy—from hydro in the east to geothermal, nuclear, and small modular reactors in the central and northern provinces—producing fresh vegetables, herbs, and berries in midwinter. As technology advances, the costs of these energy sources continue to fall, making year-round, low-carbon food production increasingly viable. Combine that with autonomous tractors, precision fertilization, and robotics-driven harvesting. With the right incentives, we could transform our food sector into one of the most advanced, affordable, and resilient in the world.

A Cultural Reset

We also need a mindset shift—from “cheap and convenient” to “secure and sustainable.” That doesn’t mean giving up the foods we love but learning to appreciate what grows closer to home and in season. Eating within 100 kilometres shouldn’t just be a lifestyle trend—it can be a cornerstone of food sovereignty.

Locally produced food is fresher, tastier, and carries a smaller carbon footprint. Supporting regional agriculture strengthens local economies and shortens supply chains. And while a food like imported blueberries in January might feel like a treat, choosing local alternatives is a small, but meaningful step toward greater food security, national independence, and climate resilience.

Aligning Capital and Policy

Achieving food sovereignty will require a new partnership between government and private enterprise.

Policy must move beyond short-term price management toward long-term resilience. Governments should incentivize innovation in ag-tech, vertical farming, and cold-climate greenhouses. Investments in regional food processing and storage capacity are essential to reduce export dependence and import reliance. And every trade negotiation should be stress-tested for its impact on our food self-sufficiency.

Private capital has a critical role to play. Venture and growth investors should treat food technology and sustainable agriculture as the next frontier—on par with clean energy and digital infrastructure. The returns will be measured not just in profits but in national resilience and social stability.

From Abundance to Assurance

Canada’s natural advantages—water, land, fertilizer, and energy—are unmatched. But abundance without strategy is complacency. If we don’t take control of our food future, others will.

Global supply chains are increasingly fragile. Climate shocks are more frequent. Trade relations are politicized. The next crisis, whether environmental, economic, or geopolitical, could once again test our ability to feed ourselves.

We cannot afford to fail that test twice.

The Path Forward

Food sovereignty must become a central pillar of Canada’s national strategy, alongside energy independence and digital sovereignty. We have all the tools: the land, the technology, the capital, and the know-how. What we need now is alignment and intention.

If we reimagine agriculture as a high-tech, high-value sector driven by innovation and self-reliance, Canada can again become the world’s breadbasket—this time by design, not by default.

The sovereignty of our food supply is not just about what’s on our plates. It’s about who controls our destiny.

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